近20年来狮子座流星雨预报进展
吴光节
(中国科学院云南天文台 昆明 650011)
(中国科学院国家天文台 北京 100012)
摘 要
对近20年来狮子座流星雨的预报工作,进行了系统的阐述和分析。1998年Tempel-Tuttle彗星的回归,再度带来了狮子座流星雨的观测热,也大大促进了对狮子座流星雨预报工作的研究与验证。有的研究在时间预报准确度方面已显示出其模型的优越性,有的在流星雨的强度方面显示出一定的准确度。指出了两大类不同的方法实际上是在三维空间强调了不同的方面。将不同方法的优势结合起来,可能会使流星雨的预报更加成熟。
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Progress
of Predicting in the Leonid Meteor Shower
Wu Guangjie
(Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011)
(National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
100012)
Abstract
The predicting of the Leonid meteor shower in history,
especially during recent 20 years, has been expatiated and analyzed
systematically, including the contribution of the author. The recent
return of Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle in 1998 has push not only
observational activities on the Leonid meteor shower, but also the
research and verification about its prediction. Up to now, some
predictions about maximum time of showers have shown very high
veracity, and some predictions apparently have made mighty advantages
in intensity of the shower. It seems these two kinds of method
accentuate different aspects of the meteor swarm in 3-dimentional
space. The combination of their success of different methods will make
the predictions more maturate.
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